Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 18.089110 21.067300 24.331323 28.167191 32.544430 37.376299 43.106419
2024-10-06 13.605601 17.776987 22.830242 29.367506 37.561959 47.451866 60.245544
2024-10-13 11.124177 15.911482 22.181077 30.910886 42.655102 57.797228 78.667713
2024-10-20 8.782840 13.591080 20.325693 30.308138 44.557671 63.962867 92.134478
2024-10-27 6.872115 11.425621 18.203092 28.826761 44.807048 67.634662 102.298108
2024-11-03 6.239051 11.011833 18.481655 30.738714 49.974992 78.528301 123.465602
2024-11-10 5.838182 10.873139 19.115059 33.198411 56.140035 91.351121 148.510103
2024-11-17 5.106318 10.040721 18.490471 33.523823 58.931659 99.228422 166.649759
2024-11-24 4.372132 9.069615 17.476771 33.032807 60.274318 104.857886 181.628080
2024-12-01 3.691222 8.073665 16.265191 32.013992 60.558356 108.707943 193.932465
2024-12-08 3.238499 7.440177 15.614755 31.891656 62.330116 115.095812 210.829291
2024-12-15 2.889523 6.956263 15.173971 32.084864 64.645801 122.539937 230.006035
2024-12-22 2.369010 6.041535 13.815282 30.466401 63.677361 124.550987 240.673375
2024-12-29 2.161220 5.793762 13.796276 31.534058 67.985958 136.535295 270.326904
2025-01-05 2.018363 5.670710 14.022857 33.132936 73.502820 151.226920 306.129599
2025-01-12 1.730016 5.129459 13.241331 32.481415 74.406942 157.279531 326.335367
2025-01-19 1.428790 4.485447 12.114063 30.901804 73.183064 159.062775 338.498631
2025-01-26 1.376179 4.502001 12.558139 32.937537 79.859217 177.006745 383.422425
2025-02-02 1.354298 4.601198 13.218808 35.555812 88.056967 198.647449 437.195905
2025-02-09 1.222041 4.348299 12.947336 35.902111 91.211535 210.150140 471.366824
2025-02-16 1.068888 3.995658 12.356683 35.379540 92.315567 217.420558 497.370712
2025-02-23 0.915235 3.602661 11.588490 34.295115 91.971437 221.529323 517.026280
2025-03-02 0.815124 3.362818 11.207640 34.164888 93.886649 230.693710 548.037191